We have completed the manuscript of the book Faith In A Changing Climate. We are releasing sections of the book in a series of posts at this site. The third part of Chapter 1 is provided below.
Throughout this book I frequently refer to Figure 1.1 because it provides a necessary background to so many of the challenges that we face. It shows human (anthropogenic) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in gigatons (billions of metric tons) per year since the year 1950. (In the next chapter we provide some context for these difficult-to-understand, very large numbers.)
Figure 1.1
CO2 Emissions
This chart tells us so much about our current predicaments. From it we learn the following.
Emissions in the year 1950 were only 6 gigatons — we are now close to 40 gigatons. We have increased our emissions by a factor of ten in just 70 years.
The increase has been steady in spite of all the reports, warnings, sermons, resolutions and books such as this one. The trajectory has not changed.
The green vertical line divides the chart into two periods: 1950-2000 and 2001-2022. It shows that the total amount of CO2 emitted between 1950 and 2000 — a period of 50 years — is about the same as the amount between 2000 and 2020 — a period of 20 years. In other words, climate change is our dilemma; it not something that we can blame on previous generations.
In spite of all the rhetoric to do with the success of the green revolution, the reality is that solar, wind and other new energy sources have not replaced fossil fuels. (At best, they have made a contribution to our increased energy consumption.)
If we are to reduce emissions to zero by the year 2050 (a target frequently called for) then we have to reorganize our entire industrial infrastructure so as to reduce CO2 emissions at the rate shown by the dashed red line. This means reducing the rate of emissions three times faster than they went up — starting now. There are no signs that society overall is even considering how to achieve this unrealistic goal.
This single chart explains why climate change is a predicament, not a problem. There is no way that get to zero emissions in just two decades — at least in an orderly manner.
The results of this failure to act are also shown in Figure 1.2, which known as the Keeling Curve, named after its creator, David Keeling. It shows the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere as measured near the summit of Mauna Loa on the island of Hawaii, starting in the year 1958. (The letters COP and IPCC that have been added to the chart refer to major international conferences and reports that are described in Chapter 5.)
Figure 1.2
The Keeling Curve
The chart shows a remorseless increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Starting from a value of 315 ppm (parts per million) in the year 1958, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has climbed steadily to about 420 ppm in the year 2021. In July 2023 the concentration was 422 ppm. Figures 1.1 and 1.2 correlate well with one another.
Since Keeling started work on his chart almost three generations ago nothing of significance has changed; the upward trajectory is unrelenting. Indeed, in recent years the slope actually seems to be increasing. (The rate of change of the rate of change is going up.) Even the economic slowdown that occurred in the year 2020 did not make much of an impact. Increasingly, climate change is having an impact on peoples’ lives ― it is no longer a matter of numbers and charts.
Figure 1.2 also shows that our problems cannot be blamed on previous generations. 80% of global CO2 emissions have occurred since the year 1960, and 50% since 1990. Climate change is a recent event.